Critical Issues in Estimating ILUC Emissions - Outcomes of an Expert Consultation

Under request of DG ENER and CLIMA, the JRC organised in November 2010 an expert consultation, grouping world-recognised academics and experts in the field on Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) effects caused by increased use of biofuels. This consultation aimed at discussing the main uncertainties related to ILUC estimations and to answer to the questions addressed in the public consultation. The two days discussions focused in particular on the following items: 1. Land use change and greenhouse gas emissions (methodologies, datasets and uncertainties to locate ILUC and calculate GHG emissions) 2. Agro-economic modelling and uncertainties 3. Policy options The final discussions addressed policy issues, in particular:- • Does the modelling provide a good basis for determining how significant indirect land use change is? • Are the impacts significant? • Can we differentiate between bioethanol/biodiesel, feedstocks, geographical areas, production methods? The experts unanimously agreed that, even when uncertainties are high, all indicators point towards the existence of a significant ILUC effect and the magnitude of this effect is crop-specific. The sustainability criteria in the Renewable Energy and Fuel quality Directives limit Direct Land Use Change, but they are ineffective to avoid ILUC, and therefore additional policy measures are necessary. The use of a factor which attributes a quantity of greenhouse gas emissions to crop-specific biofuels was the favourite option discussed, but it was also agreed that policies should incentivise good agricultural practices, land management C-mitigation strategies and intensification on pasture lands. On the other hand, the experts agreed that the increase of the GHG threshold will have only a limited effect on ILUC reduction.JRC.F.8-Renewable Energy (Ispra

Indirect Land Use Change From Increased Biofuels Demand - Comparison of Models and Results for Marginal Biofuels Production from Different Feedstocks

This study compares the ILUC results produced by different economic models for marginal increases in biofuel production from different feedstocks. The work is the result of a survey of marginal calculations launched by the JRC-IE during 2009, involving some of the best known models worldwid. The modellers were requested by JRC-IE to run scenarios corresponding as closely as possible to the following specification (e.g. marginal runs against existing baseline of the following scenarios): A marginal extra ethanol demand in EU B marginal extra biodiesel demand in EU C marginal extra ethanol demand in US D marginal extra palm oil demand in EU The results from the different models and various scenarios are compared in this report in terms of hectares of ILUC per Mtoe of biofuels produced (marginal land use change). In the EU ethanol scenarios, the total estimated ILUC (in the world) ranges from 223 to 743 kHa per Mtoe. For most of the EU ethanol scenarios the models project that the largest share of ILUC would occur outside the EU In the EU biodiesel scenarios, total ILUC ranges from 242 to 1928 kHa per Mtoe In all of the EU biodiesel scenarios the models project that the largest share of LUC would occur outside the EU Although this is not the main purpose of this report, the range of GHG emissions which one could expect to correspond to the areas of LUC reported by all the models has been rouglhy estimated. The report provides deep analysis of the resons of differences between models and gives fundamental indications to policy makers on how to address the issue of ILUC in legislation.JRC.DDG.F.8-Renewable Energy (Ispra

Contribution of Natural Sources to Air Pollution Levels in the EU - A Technical Basis for the Development of Guidance for the Member States

Exceedences of air quality limit values represent breaches of Community law which can have significant legal consequences for the Member States. For some existing limit values, such as those in directive 1999/30/EC (1st Daughter Directive), an exceedence which is caused by particular natural sources can be ignored for the purposes of ensuring compliance with Community law. A new air quality directive proposal is currently being negotiated in the Council and the European Parliament and this is likely to extend this principle to natural (non-anthropogenic) sources of pollution generally so long as the "natural contribution" can be quantified and documented. This could include sea-spray and biogenic organic aerosol amongst other materials. The aim of this report is to document those information and methodologies which are available to permit Member States to determine and document natural sources of air pollution. This information will later be incorporated into specific guidance to be developed by the European Commission in the context of implementing the new legislation once adopted by the Council and the European Parliament. In this report different types of natural sources contributing to PM levels in Europe are identified according to experts’ judgment and based on literature studies. The methods currently implemented by research groups of the Member States for the identification and quantification of natural sources are also described. The content of this report is based on discussions with experts from various Member States, on the results of a questionnaire which has been circulated to experts of all EU Member States, on available literature studies and on the outcomes of a workshop on “Contribution of natural sources to PM levels in Europe” organized by the JRC in Ispra in October 2006.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Solid and gaseous bioenergy pathways: input values and GHG emissions

The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) (2009/28/EC) and the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) (2009/30/EC) fix a threshold of savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for biofuels and bioliquids, and set the rules for calculating the greenhouse impact of biofuels, bioliquids and their fossil fuels comparators. To help economic operators to declare the GHG emission savings of their products, default and typical values are also listed in the annexes of the RED and FQD directives. The Commission recommended Member States to use the same approach for other bioenergy sources in the report from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on sustainability requirements for the use of solid and gaseous biomass sources in electricity, heating and cooling (COM(2010)11). Typical and default GHG emission values for solid and gaseousbioenergy pathways were reported in the report. SWD(2014)2014 updates the values defined in the COM(2010)11 to account for the technogical and market developments in the bioenergy sector. This report describes the assumptions made by the JRC when compiling the updated data set used to calculate default and typical GHG emissions for the different solid and gaseous bioenergy pathways and the results of such calculations in terms of typical and default GHG emission values . In the annexes the comments/questions received from JRC as reaction to the presentation of the data in stakeholders/experts consultations are reported together with their relative answers/rebuttals. This report describes the assumptions made by the JRC when compiling the updated data set used to calculate default and typical GHG emissions for the different solid and gaseous bioenergy pathways and the results of such calculations in terms of typical and default GHG emission values . In the annexes the comments/questions received from JRC as reaction to the presentation of the data in stakeholders/experts consultations are reported together with their relative answers/rebuttals.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Progress in estimates of ILUC with MIRAGE model

JRC started in 2012 a collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to carry out further work with the economic model MIRAGE used to calculate the ILUC emissions included in the Commission policy proposal COM(2012)595.. Results are expected to further reduce uncertainties in ILUC estimates. This work presents and discusses the results of new runs of MIRAGE model delivered to the JRC-IET. In particular, IFPRI was asked to: - Evaluate GHG emissions by crop groups (sugar, cereals and oil crops), maintaining the same model assumptions/parameters as in the previous analysis. - Make new runs of the MIRAGE economic model, with improved assumptions/parameters as suggested by the JRC The changes brought by IFPRI to their model raise the ILUC emissions compared to 2011 values, especially for EU ethanol.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Biofuels from algae: technology options, energy balance and GHG emissions: Insights from a literature review

During the last decade(s), algal biomass received increasing interest as a potential source of advanced biofuels production resulting in a considerable attention from research, industry and policy makers. In fact, algae are expected to offer several advantages compared to land-based biomass crops, including: better photosynthetic efficiency; higher oil yield; growth on non-fertile land; tolerance to a variety of water sources (i.e. fresh, brackish, saline) and CO2 re-using potential. The algal growth can be also integrated in wastewater (WW) treatment systems to combine the nutrient streams removal with biofuels production. In addition, a wide range of marketable co-products can be extracted from algae (e.g. chemicals, pharmaceuticals, nutritionals) along with the production of biofuels, under a biorefinery system. Considering the potential benefits, several European-funded pilot projects, under science-business partnerships, have been dedicated to the development of algae technologies in the biofuels and bioenergy sectors. Despite the extensive research and investments in the last decade(s), no large-scale, commercial algae-to-biofuels facilities were implemented yet. In fact, in the current algae cultivation sites, the produced biomass is currently exploited for production of food and feed, combined with the extraction of high added-value products, such as proteins, nutritional supplements and chemicals. We report on the current-status of technology options for the potential exploitation of algae (of both macro- and microalgae species) in the biofuels and bioenergy sectors. We presents a comprehensive review of recent advances on promising algal biofuel production pathways, in terms of technological development, opportunities and limitations to their overall effectiveness. Furthermore, we analyse the main features, assumptions, modelling approaches and results of the algal biofuel pathways considered in the LCA literature. We highlight and interpret the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions balances resulting from examined LCA studies, in view of the key parameters mainly affecting the results. A comparison of the performance associated to the proposed algal biofuels pathways with that found for conventional fossil derived fuels is also reported.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Інституціональна структура суспільства та економічна безпека держави

У статті розглядається взаємозв’язок між інституціональною структурою суспільства та економічною безпекою держави. Виділено інститути, які мають найбільший вплив на економічну безпеку держави.The article is concerned with institutional structure and economic state security and its correlation. It focus on institutes that it have potent influence on economic state security

Historical deforestation due to expansion of crop demand: implications for biofuels

The report presents an independent estimate of the part of LUC emissions due to deforestation, starting from the 29% of historical deforestation area (and estimated emissions) caused by expansion of different crops. The deforestation area and emissions per tonne of extra crop are converted to emissions per MJ biofuel from that crop. The average global deforestation caused by increase in production of a crop or biofuel is estimated, making no geographical differentiation in where the extra demand occurs or where that would provoke deforestation. The source of historical deforestation data is a report published by DG ENV [EC 2013] which estimates which areas of forest were lost to different crops and to other land uses (grazing, logged forest, urban and others) between 1990 and 2008. It used historical deforestation data from FAO’s Forest Resource Assessment 2010, interpreted with other FAO data. The emissions are calculated only from deforestation and peat forest drainage, attributed to each MJ biofuel. This does not include emissions from the grassland area converted to cropland. This method gives an independent verification of the general magnitude of LUC area and emissions which should be expected from bottom-up models of LUC for scenarios, and the results indicate that historical LUC emissions were higher than those estimated by most economic models.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Solid and gaseous bioenergy pathways: input values and GHG emissions: Calculated according to methodology set in COM(2016) 767: Version 2

The Commission's legislative proposal for a recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED-recast) (COM(2016) 767), in Art. 26(7), specifies the minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving thresholds that bioenergy must comply with in order to count towards the renewables targets and to be eligible for public support. Annex V (liquid biofuels) and Annex VI (solid and gaseous biomass) of the RED-Recast describe the methodology for GHG savings calculations needed to comply with the GHG criteria. They also provide a list of Default GHG emission values, aggregated and disaggregated, that operators can use to demonstrate compliance of their product with the GHG criteria. This report describes the input data, assumptions and methodological approach applied by the JRC when compiling the updated dataset used to calculate GHG emissions for the different biomass pathways. The GHG emissions resulting from the application of the methodology from COM(2016) 767, and presented in Annex VI of the document, are also shown. The report aims to provide operators, stakeholders ,and the scientific community all the necessary information to explain the assumptions chosen as well as to guarantee reproducibility of the results. Additional analysis to test the sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is presented in the final section of the report.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Domestic heating from forest logging residues: environmental risks and benefits

The European Union (EU) relies largely on bioenergy to achieve its climate and energy targets for 2020 and beyond. Special focus is placed on utilization of biomass residues, which are considered to cause low environmental impacts. We used the dataset from the latest European Commission document on the sustainability of solid and gaseous biomass (SWD2014 259), complementing those results by: i) designing three pathways for domestic-heat production using forest logging residues, with different combustion technologies; ii) expanding the analysis to include forest carbon stock development with and without bioenergy; iii) using absolute climate metrics to assess the surface temperature response by the end of the century to a bioenergy and a reference fossil system; iv) including multiple climate forcers (well-mixed GHG, near term climate forcers and surface albedo change); iv) quantifying life cycle impacts on acidification, particulate matter emissions and photochemical ozone formation; v) reviewing potential risks for forest ecosystem degradation due to increased removal of residues. Supply-chain GHG savings of the three pathways analysed ranged between 80% and 96% compared to a natural gas system, above the 70% threshold suggested by the EU. However, the climate impact of bioenergy should be assessed by considering also the non-bioenergy uses of the biomass and by including all climate forcers. We calculate the Surface Temperature Response to bioenergy and fossil systems by means of Absolute Global surface Temperature Potential (AGTP) metric. Domestic heating from logging residues is generally beneficial to mitigate the surface temperature increase by 2100 compared to the use of natural gas and other fossil sources. As long as residues with a decay rate in the forest higher than 2.7%*yr1 are considered as feedstock, investing now in the mobilization of residues for heat production can reduce the temperature increase by 2100 compared to all the fossil sources analysed, both in case of bioenergy as a systemic change or in case of bioenergy as a transitory option. Furthermore, several environmental risks are associated with the removal and use of forest logging residues for bioenergy. These issues concern mostly local air pollution, biodiversity loss and, mainly for stumps removal, physical damage to forest soils. Forest logging residues are not free of environmental risks. Actions promoting their use should consider: (i) that climate change mitigation depends mainly on the decay rate of biomass under natural decomposition and time and rate of technology deployment, (ii) whether management guidelines aimed at protecting long-term forest productivity are in place and (iii) whether proper actions for the management of adverse effects on local air pollution are in place